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Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA FROM AROUND 0200 UTC
SHOWED A BROAD AND POSSIBLY ELONGATED CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION. EARLIER BANDING FEATURES NORTH OF THE CENTER HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH A DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72
HOURS...TAKING THE SYSTEM TO 64 KT BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS DESPITE
PERSISTENT NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS. THE GFDL IS QUITE
ERRATIC IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE
CYCLONE TO 82 KT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL IS ON
THE OTHER EXTREME...DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KT
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 265/9 BASED
ON A 24-HOUR MOTION. DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
SLOW DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHERE IT
IS VERY CLOSE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 14.2N 119.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.0N 121.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 13.8N 123.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 13.5N 127.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N 132.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W    55 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Sep-2005 08:40:19 UTC