ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH NO CLEARLY DISCERNABLE CENTER. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS...HOWEVER...DID SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION. DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN PERHAPS SOME IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE...AS INDICATED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM VERY QUICKLY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAR CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/10. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A BASIC WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND THE GFDL RATHER SLOWER. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.8N 119.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.8N 121.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 14.4N 127.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Sep-2005 02:55:19 UTC