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Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH NO CLEARLY DISCERNABLE
CENTER.  THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS...HOWEVER...DID SHOW A BROAD
CIRCULATION.  DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED
CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH T2.0
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE...AS INDICATED BY THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC
PREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.  ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM VERY QUICKLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LACK
OF A CLEAR CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/10.  RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A BASIC WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY
FASTER AND THE GFDL RATHER SLOWER.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 14.8N 119.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 121.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 14.4N 127.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W    50 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Sep-2005 02:55:19 UTC