ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH HAS BEEN NOTED WITH T.D. TEN THIS MORNING...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES A CONSENSUS T2.0...30 KT...FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST TO 140W. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR AT LEAST MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER 27C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS...THEN HOLDING STEADY THROUGH 120 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SSTS COOL SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A COMBINATION OF MICROWAVE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUITY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH FAVOR A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION...AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MAINTAINS A STEADY 270-280 DEGREE MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 15.5N 117.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.9N 118.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 16.3N 120.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.5N 123.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Sep-2005 14:40:16 UTC