ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICT THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND BENEATH A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE MOVING IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CLOSER TO COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/8. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE MID-LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST FORCING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.9N 114.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Sep-2005 02:55:18 UTC