ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0158Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF CLOUDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT. IRWIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS. IF NO NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IRWIN WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.1N 114.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.1N 115.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.0N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 30/0600Z 16.8N 119.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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