Tropical Storm IRWIN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2005
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0158Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF CLOUDS
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT.  IRWIN
HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS.  IF NO
NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IRWIN WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6.  THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 17.1N 114.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.1N 115.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 16.8N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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