ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 145 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 25 AND 30 KT...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. SHIPS INDICATES THAT THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IRWIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A DRYER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS...FURTHER DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDING JUST TO THE WEST OF IRWIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 17.2N 114.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 17.1N 115.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 29/1200Z 17.1N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 30/0000Z 17.1N 119.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 31/0000Z 17.0N 122.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-Aug-2005 02:55:14 UTC