ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005 THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF T.D. NINE HAS NOT IMPROVED THIS EVENING AND THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 2.0 OR 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES WARM SSTS. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF HURRICANE HILARY. CONSEQUENTLY...MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST UNTIL THAT TIME. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. FORECASTER COBB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.2N 107.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 108.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 17.9N 111.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 18.2N 113.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2005 02:40:12 UTC