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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005
 
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF T.D. NINE HAS NOT IMPROVED THIS EVENING
AND THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 2.0 OR 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A LESSENING OF THE
SHEAR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES WARM SSTS. 
BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF
HURRICANE HILARY. CONSEQUENTLY...MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS BEING
FORECAST UNTIL THAT TIME. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS AND CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECASTER COBB/AVILA

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 17.2N 107.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 108.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N 111.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 113.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2005 02:40:12 UTC