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Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005

A 0403Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE
FEATURE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE BAND NOW RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALSO REVEALS STABLE/DRYER AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48
HOURS...DEGENERATING FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  LATER
IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 21.1N 117.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.8N 118.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.6N 120.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 23.3N 121.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.8N 123.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 24.1N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2005 08:40:13 UTC