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Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005
 
AN EARLIER 0418Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A 30 NM RAGGED EYE WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION REVEALS THAT THE WHITE BAND
HAS NOW ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. NO CHANGES TO
THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRYER AIR
MASS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND THE
GFDL...WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING IN 96 HOURS...DEGENERATING
FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS HILARY
MOVES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONU
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 19.4N 114.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N 115.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 20.7N 117.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 21.6N 118.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 23.5N 123.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2005 08:40:14 UTC