ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005 HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...PARTICULARLY IN THE INNER CORE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE MEAN OF THE DVORAK T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. HILARY COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS WAS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY WAS EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS SLOWING HAS OCCURRED A LITTLE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. A TURN TO THE WEST IS SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO AND MORE OR LESS THE SAME THEREAFTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 18.7N 112.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC