ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRMED THAT HILARY INDEED HAD MOVED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ALONG A RAPID CYCLONICALLY CURVED ARC THAT ALREADY APPEARS TO BE BENDING BACK TO THE LEFT AND SLOWING. THE OVERALL MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS IS 295/13. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WHEN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AS TO HOW HILARY WILL RESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TURNING HILARY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN HILARY AND THE TROUGH...AND INDEED TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 96 HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. SAVE FOR A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ON THE UKMET/NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL BALL OF -80C CONVECTION...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS NEAR THE CORE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND ADDITIONAL BANDS FARTHER OUT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOT CLOSE...90 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS ABOUT 80 KT...T4.7...WHILE AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO RAISE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY A LITTLE...TO 75 KT. ONLY MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND HILARY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SHIPS APPEARS TO DECAY THE CYCLONE TOO SLOWLY OVER THE COLD WATER...WHERE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.6N 107.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W 90 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC