Tropical Storm HILARY

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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN THINNED OUT A LITTLE LATE THIS
MORNING... BUT BURSTS CONTINUE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE UNCHANGED AT 55 KT... AS IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. EVEN
THOUGH THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELLED OFF SINCE THIS MORNING... THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR... AND SSTS GREATER THAN 29C... ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING TO RESUME SOON AND TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND THE INTERPOLATED GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
HILARY HAS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS APPEARED TO BE MOVING JUST
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND LITTLE LESS QUICKLY... AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/14. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT MOTION SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HILARY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THEREAFTER... THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HILARY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND LATER THE NORTHWEST...
INTO AN EVENTUAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER... THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH HILARY
WILL TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NOGAPS AND GFDN FORECAST A
DUE NORTH MOTION TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... BUT THE GFS AND GFDL
SHOW MUCH LESS OF A TURN AND INSTEAD A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN... CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 14.4N 103.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.8N 105.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.4N 107.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 112.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W    60 KT
 
 
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