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Tropical Storm GREG


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
 
GREG REMAINS COMPLETELY SHEARED ABOUT 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE
NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FROM A
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IS STREAMING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE...
AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT 200 MB EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO
INCREASE OVER GREG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW KEEPS THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS FORECAST...THIS
WOULD REPRESENT MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO KILL GREG OFF.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT
REINTENSIFICATION...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS GUIDANCE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW DISSIPATION AT THIS TIME. 

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  VIRTUALLY ALL THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH MEANDERS GREG
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE PULLING IT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
BACK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE WESTWARD OPTION MAKES
SENSE IF GREG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS NO NET MOTION DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ASSUMES THAT GREG WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND
QUALITATIVELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF SCENARIO.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT GREG WILL IN FACT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR LONGER THAN A DAY OR SO.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 14.4N 115.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 02:40:13 UTC