ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GREG IS GRADUALLY BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER AND A WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND. THE CURRENT DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT GREG HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE CENTER OF GREG HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SHALLOW AND THE DOMINANT STEERING APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER GYRE TO THE EAST....THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS SHOW LITTLE MOTION AND NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION OVER WARM WATER...A REFORMATION OR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.3N 115.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC