ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION. BECAUSE THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME DISORGANIZED THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WILL RESULT IN RE-STRENGTHENING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SINCE BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSIFY GREG. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEADERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...GREG SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF TE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 14.5N 115.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 118.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 122.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 130.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 14:40:12 UTC