ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG REMAINS EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FEW INFRARED SHORTWAVE IMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ABOUT 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN SOME. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 35 KT EVEN THOUGH THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TO CONFORM TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...GRADUALLY INCREASING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 2....THEN MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. AFTERWARDS...THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN HURRICANE FERNANDA AND GREG SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 15.1N 114.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.3N 114.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 15.2N 115.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 123.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 125.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 09:10:11 UTC