Tropical Storm GREG

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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF GREG. THE CENTER IS
QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN SINCE CENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB
DIFFER BY 4 TENTHS OF A DEGREE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. BASED
ON PREVIOUS SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM... AND FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY MICROWAVE FIXES... THE OFFICIAL POSITION TENDS TOWARD
THE SAB POSITION. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL CENTERS ARE ALSO
MIXED...BUT GENERALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE
SHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 50 KT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MAKE
GREG A HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES MAKE GREG A HURRICANE BEYOND 36 HOURS... BUT
THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN FUTURE
ADVISORIES AS GREG STRUGGLES IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WESTWARD IN TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF CONTINUITY AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL. THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER
FROM THE 12Z RUN TAKES A HUGE SOUTH AND EAST TURNAROUND... AN
UNREALISTIC RADICAL SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY... A LOWER CONFIDENCE IS
PLACED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH UTILIZE THE GFS
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK MOVES GREG IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS... WHICH
CONSISTS OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACKS.    

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 14.5N 113.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.6N 114.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.6N 115.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.7N 117.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W    65 KT
 
 
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