ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED...AND AN AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0537Z SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GREG IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REMAINS OF THE BURST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE AMSU IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. SO FAR...THE TRACK OF GREG IS NOT BEING AFFECTED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE FERNANDA...AS THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS TO ALLOW GREG TO STAY ON A WESTERLY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTELY MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHERLY NOGAPS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACAKAGE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GUNS...AND CONU. SOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER GREG... WHICH FOR THE MOMENT HAS DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL RE-ORGANIZE AROUND THE CENTER...WITH GREG REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24-48 HR. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GREG SHOULD BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 13.7N 112.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 13.8N 113.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.0N 114.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 14.2N 115.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 14.3N 116.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 09:25:12 UTC