Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GREG


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
 
THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED...AND AN
AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0537Z SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GREG
IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REMAINS OF THE BURST.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM
AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE
THE AMSU IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION.  SO FAR...THE TRACK OF GREG IS NOT BEING
AFFECTED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE FERNANDA...AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS TO ALLOW GREG TO STAY ON A
WESTERLY TRACK.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTELY MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE
NORTHERLY NOGAPS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACAKAGE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL...GUNS...AND CONU.

SOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER GREG...
WHICH FOR THE MOMENT HAS DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  THIS
SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
RE-ORGANIZE AROUND THE CENTER...WITH GREG REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 24-48 HR.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GREG
SHOULD BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 13.7N 112.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.8N 113.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.0N 114.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.2N 115.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 14.3N 116.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W    65 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 09:25:12 UTC