Tropical Storm GREG

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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GREG CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
ARE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS.
 
IT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA WAS GOING
TO FORCE GREG TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BEHIND FERNANDA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
GREG ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
12Z OUTPUT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH
OF GREG. IN FACT...THESE MODELS SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN A
DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT.  THIS ALSO MEANS THAT GREG WILL STAY
OVER WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS
INDICATED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 13.8N 110.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    65 KT
 
 
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