ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FERNANDA REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 18 HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AND FERNANDA IS CARRIED AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS. NOW THAT FERNANDA IS SHALLOW...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS ENSUED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/10. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BASED ON THE PRESENT MOTION AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMS MODEL. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.2N 135.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.8N 138.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Aug-2005 02:40:13 UTC