Hurricane FERNANDA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FERNANDA REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 18
HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AND FERNANDA IS CARRIED AS A REMNANT LOW
THROUGH 72 HOURS.
NOW THAT FERNANDA IS SHALLOW...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS ENSUED AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/10. FERNANDA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BASED ON THE PRESENT MOTION AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE BAMS MODEL.
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.2N 135.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.8N 138.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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