Hurricane FERNANDA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FERNANDA IS A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE DATA T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
TO 30 KT AND FERNANDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VERY DRY 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT...
WITH DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 
72 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT WEAKENING TRENDS...DISSIPATION MAY 
OCCUR SOONER.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER 255/8. THE 
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THE UKMET AND
THE DEEP LAYERED BAM ARE THE TWO OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 17.0N 134.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 135.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
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