ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 15/0526Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT THAT THE EARLIER NOTED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/8. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET IS AN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS DEEP LAYER BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT BEYOND DAY 3...WHICH NOW SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS SHALLOW AND MID LAYER BAMS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.5N 132.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 09:10:10 UTC