Hurricane FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 15/0526Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT
THAT THE EARLIER NOTED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED THE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN
THE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/8. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AS A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET IS AN
OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS
DEEP LAYER BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT BEYOND DAY 3...WHICH NOW SUGGESTS A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
SHALLOW AND MID LAYER BAMS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 17.5N 132.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W    30 KT
 
 
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