Hurricane FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED.  A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 50 KT WIND
SPEEDS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  ASSUMING THESE VALUES WERE
ATTENUATED BY RAIN...60 KT SEEMS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE
INTENSITY.  SINCE THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH OF WEST AND LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DOING SO FOR SOME TIME...IT WILL NOT ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER THE INCREASED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AHEAD OF FERNANDA SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENING RATE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN
SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 240/8.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL REGIME IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE DONE USING THE QUIKSCAT
PASS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.2N 130.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N 131.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 17.2N 133.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.2N 136.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N 140.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 147.0W    50 KT
 
 
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