Hurricane FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE COULD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...DESPITE THE COOL SSTS...FERNANDA
APPEARS TO HAVE HAD RE-DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY
MODERATE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT FERNANDA SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECT OF COOL WATERS IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES AGAIN
WARMER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN KEEPS THE INTENSITY STEADY.

FERNANDA HAS BEEN FORCED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
8 KNOTS BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS SO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 18.5N 130.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N 140.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W    40 KT
 
 
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