ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONFIRMED THE EARLIER AMSU SIZE ESTIMATION DATA. THE COOLER WATERS AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER APPEAR TO BE FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON FERNANDA. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 45 AND 55 KT. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TO 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/7. THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND DAY 3. INTERROGRATION OF THE FIELDS REVEALS AN ERRONEOUS MERGING SCENARIO WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 18.9N 129.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 130.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 17.9N 131.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 17.4N 133.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.4N 137.6W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 09:10:12 UTC