Hurricane FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS CONFIRMED THE EARLIER AMSU SIZE ESTIMATION DATA. THE
COOLER WATERS AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER APPEAR TO BE FINALLY
TAKING ITS TOLL ON FERNANDA. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 45 AND 55
KT. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TO 55 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/7. THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND DAY 3. INTERROGRATION OF
THE FIELDS REVEALS AN ERRONEOUS MERGING SCENARIO WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 18.9N 129.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 130.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.9N 131.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 17.4N 133.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 134.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.4N 137.6W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W    30 KT
 
 
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