ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF FERNANDA...OTHER THAN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CORE. DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH DEPICTED A BANDING EYE FEATURE...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL DECREASE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. AMSU TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO CONFORM TO THE MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8...JUST SOUTH OF WEST. FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL WHICH NOW SHOWS A REDUCED MOTION BEYOND DAY 3. NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE GFDN ALL ARE INDICATING A WEAKER LOW/MID STEERING CURRENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 19.1N 128.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Aug-2005 03:10:12 UTC