Hurricane FERNANDA

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HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005
 
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF FERNANDA...OTHER
THAN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CORE.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH DEPICTED A BANDING
EYE FEATURE...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT...BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY WILL DECREASE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  AMSU TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD
HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
TO CONFORM TO THE MICROWAVE DATA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8...JUST SOUTH OF WEST.
FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU
CONSENSUS MODEL WHICH NOW SHOWS A REDUCED MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.  
NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE GFDN ALL ARE INDICATING A WEAKER LOW/MID
STEERING CURRENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 19.1N 128.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W    30 KT
 
 
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