ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 FERNANDA HAS STEADILY MAINTAINED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE CONSTRAINED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT. AFWA DATA T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN THE OTHER CENTERS...BUT ALL AGREE THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD TO 70 KT UNTIL DAYLIGHT SATELLITE IMAGES GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS... FERNANDA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IT BECOMES A DEPRESSION. THE INTENSITY OUTLIER IS THE GFDL MODEL WHICH WEAKENS FERNANDA TO 45 KT... BUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IT RE-STRENGTHENS IT BACK TO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE... SHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. AGAIN...THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND MODEL CONSENSUS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING FERNANDA TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 19.2N 127.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 19.2N 128.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.8N 129.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.3N 131.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 133.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 13-Aug-2005 15:10:09 UTC