Hurricane FERNANDA

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HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...FERNANDA'S
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT...AS THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DECREASING BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...FERNANDA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER WESTERLIES SLOWLY
INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN GREG AND FERNANDA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 18.9N 125.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 19.1N 126.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.1N 128.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 18.7N 130.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N 131.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.2N 135.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 142.5W    30 KT
 
 
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