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Hurricane FERNANDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005

FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A 75 KT HURRICANE.  A
NICE EYE IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DMSP SSMI DATA SHOW A
MORE SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM OVERALL.  TAFB AND SAB REPORT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 4.5 AND THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS ALSO 4.5 SO
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER... FINAL T-NUMBERS
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SO FERNANDA HAS LIKELY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH
SHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN FERNANDA TO A TROPICAL STORM AFTER 24
HOURS... AND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IT FURTHER WEAKENS TO
A DEPRESSION AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE OVER 24 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/8. AGAIN... THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS... THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS AND
GFDL TRACKS.  IN COMPARISON... THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS AND NOGAPS IS MORE NORTH.  THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT IS MINOR
AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND MODEL CONSENSUS.  

FORECASTER SISKO
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 18.7N 124.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.2N 127.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 20:55:12 UTC