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Hurricane FERNANDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005

FERNANDA HAS LOST SOME OF ITS SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS DECREASED WITH THE
GREATEST CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE A STEADY CONSENSUS 4.5 OR 77
KT.  UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE
ALSO 4.5 RESPECTIVELY.  THE INTENSITY FOR FERNANDA REMAINS 75 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE TRACK OF
FERNANDA KEEPS IT OVER 24 DEGREE C SST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CONSEQUENTLY SHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND FINALLY WEAKEN IT TO DEPRESSION
STATUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THE FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FERNANDA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE DUE WEST IN THE MIDDLE AND EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM.  AS FERNANDA WEAKENS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 18.5N 123.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.9N 125.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.3N 126.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.4N 127.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.1N 129.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 133.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 140.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 14:55:12 UTC