ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 FERNANDA REMAINS A SYMMETRIC STORM WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A RECENT TRIM OVERPASS DETECTED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE MIRCROWAVE DATA THE INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM VERY SHORTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE FEW DAYS AS A STRONG NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IN THE LONGER RANGE A WEAKER FERNANDA MAY TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AS THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL STEERING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.1N 123.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.6N 124.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 19.1N 125.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.4N 126.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 19.3N 128.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 19.0N 131.2W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 09:10:10 UTC