Hurricane FERNANDA

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HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
 
FERNANDA REMAINS A SYMMETRIC STORM WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A RECENT TRIM OVERPASS DETECTED A
SOMEWHAT RAGGED EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST.  BASED ON THE
MIRCROWAVE DATA THE INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM VERY SHORTLY. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12
HOURS THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL SINCE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IN THE LONGER RANGE A WEAKER FERNANDA
MAY TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AS THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
STEERING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. 
 
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 18.1N 123.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.6N 124.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.1N 125.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.4N 126.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.3N 128.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 131.2W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W    30 KT
 
 
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