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Hurricane FERNANDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
FERNANDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SYMMETRIC
ABOUT THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB... AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE
IS JUST ABOUT TO PASS OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER FERNANDA... AND WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL
SINCE THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE
THROUGH 12 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FOUR DAYS... AND
OVERALL IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
GFDL.
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM TRMM... SSMI... AND AMSU
EARLIER TODAY INDICATE THAT FERNANDA TOOK A JOG TO THE WEST DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS... BUT THE SMOOTHED MOTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN 300/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CENTERED NEAR 25N130W...
BUT THE RIDGE IS WEAKER DUE NORTH OF FERNANDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN RESPONSE
TO THIS PATTERN... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO... UNTIL THE
RIDGE FORCES A WEAKENING FERNANDA ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. THE OUTLYING NOGAPS SOLUTION
THAT TAKES FERNANDA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IS DISCOUNTED... SINCE
THAT MODEL INITIALIZED THE RIDGE TOO FAR TO THE WEST... RESULTING
IN TOO MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS AS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 17.8N 122.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.9N 124.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 126.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 127.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 134.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 03:10:09 UTC