ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 SO MUCH FOR THE WEAKENING OF FERNANDA WHICH IS DISPLAYING A BANDED EYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1508Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE THOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE EYE MAY BE SHRINKING AND CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BETWEEN AODT'S OF 4.4 AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NEAR 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT FROM THE STANDARD DVORAK CURVE BASED ON CONSECUTIVE CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...FERNANDA IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTERM AND SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN A SLOW DECAYING TREND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND PARALLELLS THE 25C ISOTHERM. WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BEYOND 3 DAYS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM. FERNANDA IS BECOMING MORE CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD...FERNANDA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS REMAINS AN OUTLIER BY WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND KEEPING A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NOGAPS SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII FOLLOW WIND RADII CLIPER. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.3N 121.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 17.7N 122.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.1N 124.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.4N 125.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 20:40:09 UTC