Tropical Storm FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
WITH IMPRESSIVE INNER AND OUTER SPIRAL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INNER CORE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 60 KT.  SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST
THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCES.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE PROVIDED BY A MID TO
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE
THE UPPER LOW CAUSING FERNANDA TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN THE NOGAPS
DEVIATES TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF TRACK TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE GUNA AND
CONU MODEL BLENDS AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  

 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 16.3N 120.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 122.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.7N 124.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W    50 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W    30 KT
 
 
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