Tropical Storm FERNANDA

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005
 
THERE IS A SMALL ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
FERNANDA.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45
KT...HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE WATER WILL BE WARM FOR
ANOTHER 48 HOURS.  WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY TO
THE NORTH OF FERNANDA...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  FERNANDA SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHEN A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL CREATE
A WEAKER THAN NORMAL STEERING FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
FOR ABOUT THREE DAYS.  BY THAT POINT...FERNANDA SHOULD HAVE
BYPASSED THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN FERNANDA WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER...BUT ITS TRACK APPEARS TO BE CONTAMINATED BY
THE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE BEHIND FERNANDA.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 15.3N 117.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.8N 120.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.4N 121.9W    70 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 18.5N 124.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 128.5W    35 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN