Tropical Storm FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY PRESENTATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND THAT THE HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. IMPRESSIVE
BANDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS HAVE DEVELOPED AS
WELL AS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT
FROM AFWA.  IN VIEW OF THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY
3...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW
IS BEING CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC FROM CENTRAL MEXICO AND INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT BY A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH DAY 3. AFTERWARDS...AN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO
INFLUENCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...UKMENT AND THE GFDL. THE NHC
FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SLOWER TO
CONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.     
 
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 14.8N 116.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W    70 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W    35 KT
 
 
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