Tropical Depression SIX-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ON THE
VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
CONSTRAINED AT T2.0 FROM SAB AND T1.5 FROM TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
LEADING TO DATA T NUMBERS OF T2.5 FROM SAB AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. THE
1826Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM...WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT WINDS IN ITS INFLOW BAND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 30 KTS AT THIS
TIME. 

THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HRS...WHICH SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP
STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES BY THE
26C ISOTHERM. THE SHORT TERM TRACK HAS SHIFTED LEFT/ MORE WESTWARD
DUE TO THE DEPRESSIONS PERSISTENT WESTWARD COURSE.  THE CURRENT
TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH 
INCLUDES THE GFS/BAM SUITE/CANADIAN/GFDL MODELS...BUT TO THE
RIGHT OF CLIPER AND EXTRAPOLATION AND CLOSEST TO THE UKMET. THE 12Z
GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST BY DROPPING A SECOND
UPPER CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ON DAYS 4
AND 5. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY..SLOWED DOWN THE TRACK FROM
CONTINUITY...WHICH IS ALSO A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS THE VERY SLOW GFDL. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS SHORTLY...AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE
WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THIS IS STRONGER
THAN CONTINUITY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED/NAMED...THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WOULD REMAIN TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL
PACE...BUT STILL TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE PACE OF THE SLOW
2001/2002/2004 HURRICANE SEASONS. 

TPC/NHC WILL TAKE OVER WRITING ADVISORIES ON THIS CYCLONE AT 03Z.
 
FORECASTER ROTH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 14.1N 115.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.6N 119.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.8N 123.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.8N 126.7W    55 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 17.7N 129.9W    35 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 18.6N 133.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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