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(Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO
THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1313Z SHOWS A FIELD OF 25 KT WIND VECTORS WITH
SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT VECTORS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5
FROM SAB AND TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THIS COMBINED WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES YIELDS
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP LURE THE
DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP STEER THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. IF
THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE GREATER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS
TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD STILL KEEP THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE. 
 
FORECASTER ROTH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 14.2N 115.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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