ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1313Z SHOWS A FIELD OF 25 KT WIND VECTORS WITH SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT VECTORS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THIS COMBINED WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED...THE INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE GREATER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD STILL KEEP THE EASTERN PACIFIC TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.2N 115.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN