ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EUGENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH AN EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION...A MORE EMBEDDED CENTER...AND GOOD BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL STENGTHENING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO EUGENE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THAT SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER DECLINE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN BEFORE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF EUGENE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE LATTER FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED A LITTLE BIT COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO...BUT THERE REMAINS AN UNCOMFORTABLE SPREAD WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SHOWING A CLOSE APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS IS ABOUT 90 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND RADII FORECASTS KEEP TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WHILE EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE RADII SHOULD PULL IN AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES...ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK/INTENSITY/RADII FORECASTS COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 19.0N 108.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 20.3N 109.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 111.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 22.6N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jul-2005 14:40:07 UTC