Tropical Storm EUGENE

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EUGENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH AN
EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION...A MORE EMBEDDED CENTER...AND GOOD
BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.  ADDITIONAL STENGTHENING IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO EUGENE WILL BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THAT SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER DECLINE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND
FASTER THAN BEFORE.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF EUGENE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.  A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES THE LATTER FEATURE.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED A
LITTLE BIT COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO...BUT THERE REMAINS AN
UNCOMFORTABLE SPREAD WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SHOWING A CLOSE
APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND RADIUS IS ABOUT 90 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY AND RADII FORECASTS KEEP TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  WHILE EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AFTER MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE RADII SHOULD PULL
IN AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES...ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE
TRACK/INTENSITY/RADII FORECASTS COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. 
CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 19.0N 108.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 20.3N 109.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N 111.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.6N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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